South Australia Election Shock: Could Liberal Preferences Hand Power to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation?
A High-Stakes Election With National Implications
This weekend’s South Australian state election is shaping up to be far more than just a local political contest. It could offer a glimpse into the future of Australian politics.
At the center of attention is the battle between the ruling Peter Malinauskas–led Labor government and the struggling Liberal opposition under Ashton Hurn.
But an unexpected player is also making waves: Pauline Hanson and her party, One Nation.
The Liberal Party’s Strategic Gamble
One of the biggest talking points heading into the election is a controversial decision by the South Australian Liberals.
The party has placed One Nation above Labor on its how-to-vote cards in certain seats—a move that could significantly influence preference flows.
In Australia’s preferential voting system, this matters because:
- Voters rank candidates in order of preference
- If a candidate is eliminated, their votes are redistributed
- Preferences can ultimately decide who wins a seat
By directing preferences toward One Nation, the Liberals may inadvertently help boost the party’s chances in close contests.
Why This Move Is Risky
This strategy is being seen as a political gamble.
Internal Tensions
Not all within the Liberal Party may agree with prioritizing One Nation, given its controversial reputation and political positioning.
Voter Reaction
Some Liberal voters may be uncomfortable with their party directing preferences toward One Nation, potentially affecting support.
Leadership Pressure
For Ashton Hurn, the outcome of this strategy could have serious implications for her leadership.
One Nation’s Growing Influence
One Nation has been steadily gaining traction in Australian politics.
Rising Support Nationwide
Recent polling suggests that One Nation is outperforming expectations and, in some cases, even polling ahead of parts of the traditional Liberal base.
Targeting Discontent Voters
The party has attracted voters who feel disillusioned with both major parties.
A Potential Kingmaker Role
If One Nation gains enough votes in key seats, it could play a decisive role in determining outcomes through preferences.
A Perfect Storm for the Liberals
The South Australian Liberals are facing multiple challenges at once:
- A popular first-term Labor government
- Internal party struggles
- Competition from One Nation for similar voters
This combination has created what many are calling a “perfect storm,” putting the party under significant pressure.
Why This Election Matters Beyond South Australia
Although this is a state election, its impact could extend much further.
A Test for One Nation
The results will serve as a key indicator of One Nation’s strength on the national stage.
Signals for Federal Politics
The outcome could influence how major parties approach future elections, especially in terms of alliances and preference deals.
Insight Into Voter Sentiment
The election may reveal shifting attitudes among voters, particularly those dissatisfied with traditional party options.
The Big Question: Where Will Preferences Go?
One of the most important unknowns is how preferences will flow if One Nation candidates make it into final counts.
If Liberal voters follow how-to-vote cards:
- One Nation could benefit significantly
- Close contests could swing in unexpected directions
However, voter behavior is not always predictable, and many Australians choose to vote according to personal preference rather than party recommendations.
What’s at Stake
For the Liberal Party, the stakes are high:
- A poor result could weaken its position in South Australia
- It could raise questions about leadership and strategy
- It may reshape how the party competes with emerging forces like One Nation
For One Nation, success would mean:
- Greater influence in state politics
- Stronger national relevance
- Validation of its growing voter base
Final Thoughts
This South Australian election is more than just a local contest—it’s a political test with national consequences.
The Liberal Party’s decision to place One Nation above Labor on how-to-vote cards has introduced a layer of uncertainty that could reshape the outcome in key seats.
Whether this gamble pays off—or backfires—could influence not just the future of South Australian politics, but also the broader direction of Australia’s political landscape.
